Checking the key parameters, SOX, JJC and GTX remain bearish. XLF and VIX remain bullish. Status quo. For the SPX, the bears have stopped further upside but are not making any dramatic move lower. The uber strong 1403 S/R is playing a key role today; this is also where Draghi announced the OMT Bond-Buying program. The Greece decision continues to hang in the balance, the positivity from a resolution is likely priced into markets already. The 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance level highlighted on the weekend held at 1409, at least so far today. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart is 1402.34 and if the market bears cannot get under this level, they got nothing. The 100-day MA is 1407.28. Tech is not leading the broad markets lower today so this hints that the bears do not have much oomph. If VIX continues higher another 20 or 30 cents to the 15.90's the bears will growl strongly today.
Note Added 11/26/12 at 11:11 AM: The five parameters on watch today remain status quo although VIX and XLF are starting to tease towards the bear camp. The SPX fell under the psychological 1400, a key victory for bears. More importantly, the bears pushed the SPX under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart which signals bearishness for the hours, days, perhaps a week or three ahead. Watch this closely since the bears will need a close under the 200 EMA today. If VIX or XLF turns bearish, both are only pennies away from flipping sides, this would supply street cred for the down move and guarantee a test of the strong support at SPX 1391.
Note Added 11/26/12 at 1:58 PM: The status is quo, neither SOX, JJC, GTX, VIX or XLF want to make a move to the other side. The bears are trying to bring the VIX up higher with all their might. Similarly, the bulls are trying to bring the JJC higher, and, are succeeding in some respects, since copper is up causing the market bouyancy over the last two hours. The Nasdaq had gone positive today but is now in the red again. Tech leads and since it did not lead lower today that hints the bears do not have oomph to the downside. Most importantly, however, is the 200 EMA on the 60-minute today, now at 1402.29. The SPX is printing 1401.60 so the bears are favored by a single hair. The SPX 30-minute chart shows the 8 MA remaining above the 34 MA but the two moving averages are converging. HPQ is feeling some love today, three white soldier candles are marching up off the bottom on the daily chart. The trading day is lazy and uneventful so far, traders are sleepy from the excessive eating over the weekend. The office lunchroom smells like turkey casserole as employees line up to use the microwave.
Note Added 11/26/12 at 2:59 PM: The SPX jumps higher but the five parameters remain status quo. The bulls and bears are fighting over that critical 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart. Tech is bull friendly all day and it leads. AAPL is up 3% today now printing 589. Apple pushes the Nasdaq into positive territory again. See if AAPL closes above 580 as highlighted in this morning's chart, or not, if so, the door is open to 620, and shorts could be increased, if the short side is being played, at 610 and up. Would not be surprising to see Apple roll over at any time. As Apple goes, so goes the markets.
Note Added 11/26/12 at 3:15 PM: The SPX is back above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart so the bulls are in control for the hours, days and few weeks ahead. Bears are fighting back and need to close the SPX under the 1402.34 level, otherwise, the SPX will likely move back to 1409 and onward to 1412-1413. The SPX is printing 1403.36. The minute charts, 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, all hint at sideways action ahead with a sideways down bias, reinforcing the continuing theme thru 1391-1413, or more specifically today 1398-1409.
Note Added 11/26/12 at 3:33 PM: AAPL dumps three bucks in five minutes so the markets drop as well. The SPX is dancing along the 200 EMA, one side will be happy in less than one-half hour the other side will not. The 200 EMA is 1402.33, price is now at 1403.39, twenty-five mintues remaining on the clock. The five parameters of import today are status quo not choosing a side. The 200 EMA must serve as the arbiter and decision maker today.
Note Added 11/26/12 at 4:24 PM: No great shakes today, things ended just as they started, no change in the five parameters of interest, and the SPX remains above the 200 EMA. Tech kept the markets buoyant and Apple kept tech buoyant. The action tomorrow will pick up at the same place with the Egypt and Greece drama's intensifying the mood. Consumer Confidence at 10 AM will create a market pivot point. The 200 EMA is uber important tomorrow, bears will have to move the SPX below 1402.33, otherwise, the bulls will begin marching markets higher again. The SPX closed at the very strong 1406 support/resistance.Note Added 11/26/12 at 7:31 AM: The pro-Morsi demonstration for tomorrow is now postphoned as Morsi and the key Egyptian judges reach an agreement. The only problem is that the anti-Morsi demonstrations will continue in force and all these folks with pent up aggression will now need to seek a new target to release their frustration. The anti-Morsi protestors have already started a new revolution and can no longer trust Morsi. The euro moves above 1.30.