Today's holiday-shortened session is off with the bulls running higher. Seasonality-wise, today is typically an up day and also one of the lowest volume days of the year. The RTH, XLF, VIX and JJC remain as described previously, with a bias towards the bull side, so the markets float higher. The SPX received its smidge of green in the futures overnight so a market launch occurred, the SPX jumping several handles at the open. SPX is now over 1400. The 1391 resistance was key so once that let loose, 1403 is in play. As described in the prior chart, the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart is 1402.23, the bulls can dance a happy jig, while throwing confetti, if the 1402.23 is taken out to the upside. The HOD is 1401.35, within one point of this bull goal. A large nail in the bear coffin is price overtaking the important 20-day MA at 1394, a very bullish signal. Look for a back kiss of the 20-day MA.
The American consumers are exposed as vampires, coming out in droves overnight to suck up deals like blood thirsty monsters, and now retiring home to sleep during the daylight hours. WMT says the sales may set a record. The retail action appears robust. The trick while gauging retail is not to simply look at the number of people but rather look at the number of people that are carrying bags. Key SPX S/R is 1422, 1419, 1416, 1413, 1411.68 (20-week MA), 1409, 1406.85 (100-day MA), 1406, 1404, 1403, 1402.23 (200 EMA on the 60-minute chart), 1401, 1399, 1397, 1394, 1393.80 (20-day MA), 1391 and 1389.Note Added 11/23/12 at 10:30 AM: The bulls are running strongly higher. The 200 EMA as described above at 1402 was taken out. The strong 1403 resistance is attacked and price keeps on going now testing the strong 1403. Everything is going the bulls way and in light volume it is easy to push the markets strongly higher. The 1402-1407 resistance gauntlet is a big deal today. Bears will simply be happy if they can send the SPX back under 1402. Any close at 1402.23 or higher provides the bulls a strong upper hand going into next week. The SPX HOD is 1404.21, the 1404 R has held, so far.Note Added 11/23/12 at 10:48 AM: Note the drama at the 200 EMA, the SPX now printing 1402.26. The euro is at a three-week high. Just Wednesday we were watching the 1.2820 level to see if bulls or bears would win, the euro is now at 1.2963. The 50-day MA is 1.2915 so pay attention to this level and use is as a bull-bear gauge, euro above 1.2915 and markets move higher, euro below 1.2915 and markets drift lower. Checking the four key parameters dictating market direction currently; XLF is 15.79 above the 15.62 creating market bullishness, the RTH is 44.56 above the 43.92 creating market bullishness, the VIX is 15.12 below the 15.95 creating market bullishness (volatility moves opposite to the markets) and JJC is 44.47 below the 44.85 creating market bearishness. In a nutshell, the bears need the SPX under 1402 and the XLF under 15.62 asap. The bulls need to move the JJC above 44.85 and there will be no looking back, SPX 1425 and higher is on its way. The HOD holds at 1404.21, so far. The 10-year yield is 1.69%. The markets close in two hours.Note Added 11/23/12 at 11:58 AM: The SPX is printing 1402.23. Today's market drama is provided by the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart. The HOD at 1404.21 continues to hold. The euro is 1.2960 well above the 50-day MA at 1.2915 so the bulls are smiling broadly.Note Added 11/23/12 at 12:47 AM: The bulls are taking no prisioners today, the SPX takes out the HOD and takes a stab at the strong 1406 resistance. HOD is 1405.81. JJC is 44.60 not yet at the 44.85 and higher that the bulls need to verify the enthusiastic market upside. VIX is trying to keep its head above water at 15. Bulls want to enjoy the weekend as they consume turkey leftovers.Note Added 11/23/12 at 12:56 PM: Keystone bot more SPXS adding to this ongoing long position (which is a leveraged short ETF).Note Added 11/23/12 at 1:03 PM: The broad indexes launch higher with an obscene move to the moon into the closing bell, an upside orgy that sends the Dow Industrials over 13K. The SPX finishes at the highs above 1409 resistance, a huge 1.30% move today, 18 handles. The NYSE volume is light as expected. The bulls took out the 20-day MA, 200 EMA on the 60-minute and the 100-day MA, all very bullish indications. Keystone's 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross Indicator signals bullish markets for the hours, days, perhaps weeks ahead. The rally into the close is frothy. The TRIN is at an uber low 0.44 verifying the over-the-top bullishness. Two +1000 TICK's occur in the last twenty minutes. The NYAD almost tags +2000 signaling uber bullishness. The TRIN, TICK and NYAD hint at the need for the markets to pull back on Monday to relieve this extreme bullishness. The CPC put/call wil be interesting. The VIX finishes flat at 15.19; the VIX should have fallen over 5% or more today, well down into the low 14's to verify the bullishness, instead it finished flat, so this will keep traders guessing thru the weekend. VIX, JJC and XLF will play a key role come Monday.